Poland to hold general election on Sunday
Polish voters will go to the polls on Sunday to choose the full slate of 460 MPs to the lower house and 100 Senators in an election that could bring a change of government as chief opposition party Law & Justice (PiS) continues to ride high in the polls and largely set the tone of the ongoing campaign ahead of current governing party Civic Platform (PO).
The two leading candidates for Prime Minister are Beata Szydlo, deputy leader of PiS and the current PM Ewa Kopacz.
Szydlo was named as PiS candidate for PM shortly after the successful presidential campaign of Andrzej Duda, which Szydlo managed.
Kopacz has been Prime Minister and PO party leader since Donald Tusk hand-picked her as his successor for both posts in late 2014 upon becoming President of the European Council.
Six second-tier political parties are vying at the national level to join PiS and PO in the next Parliament.
United Left, a leftist alliance forged in July after a long fitful process by 1.Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) - the latest incarnation of Poland's post-communist left, in power 1993-1997 with PSL and 2001-2005 with PSL & UP; 2.Your Movement - previously known as The Palikot Movement after founder Janusz Palikot, a former and controversial member of governing party PO who launched the party in 2011 to capture leftist votes largely on lifestyle issues; 3.PPS - a marginal grouping of socialists with no independent parliamentary presence; 4.UP - a labor party which has been in coalition with SLD in prior elections; and 5.the Polish Greens. United Left's campaign gained its first palpable momentum October 4 when the coalition convention named Barbara Nowacka as its leader and PM candidate.
Polish People’s Party (PSL) - an agrarian, centrist party; a long-standing fixture on Poland's political scene: PO's junior coalition partner since 2007, earlier in coalition with left-wing SLD (1993-1997 and 2001-2003). PSL has kept a rather low profile during the early election campaign, focusing on local issues, with only party leader and deputy PM Janusz Piechocinski forefront in the national media.
Nowoczesna (Modern) – a liberal grouping established in May 2015 by Ryszard Petru, a former bank economist, who sought to appeal to a free-market camp that may have felt abandoned by the once-liberal PO. The platform is reform-minded towards state institutions with an eye to building the foundations for economic growth.
Kukiz'15- A new political grouping established by rock musician Pawel Kukiz, the dark horse of the May presidential election who unexpectedly gathered 20% of votes, largely by appealing to an anti-establishment youth electorate.
KORWiN - A party deeply conservative on social issues, fiercely libertarian on economic issues, set up in early 2015 by Janusz Korwin-Mikke, who has previously headed parties with a similar profile since the early 1990s.
Partia Razem (Together Party) - A leaderless left-wing party set up in May 2015 by activists from Young Socialists and former members of the Greens who did not want to go to elections as a part of electoral alliance United Left.
Based on voter support polls, none of the smaller parties can feel confident it will make it past thresholds required for parliamentary representation (5% for parties, 8% for coalitions). Support levels vary widely from poll to poll.
Average poll numbers adjusted for house effects and standard biases of the polls ranked chances of the parties from highest chance for Kukiz’15, followed by the United Left and Nowoczesna. PSL had slipped to just under a 50% chance while Korwin showed only slim chances of meeting the bottom threshold, according to research by Ben Stanley of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw as last updated October 16.
Over 30.73 million adult Poles are qualified to vote.
Poles vote at 27,860 polling stations, including 250 abroad.
A media and campaigning blackout begins at midnight Friday evening and lasts until the last polling station closes Sunday. Voting is slated to run from 7:00 and 21:00, but individual polling stations can be kept open beyond that point, which extends the nationwide blackout.
Three television stations have commissioned an exit poll from the Ipsos agency. The election authority PKW has vowed to issue preliminary national results defining which parties qualify for potential seats late Monday, and the final results with seat allocation Tuesday.
Szydlo was named as PiS candidate for PM shortly after the successful presidential campaign of Andrzej Duda, which Szydlo managed.
Kopacz has been Prime Minister and PO party leader since Donald Tusk hand-picked her as his successor for both posts in late 2014 upon becoming President of the European Council.
Six second-tier political parties are vying at the national level to join PiS and PO in the next Parliament.
United Left, a leftist alliance forged in July after a long fitful process by 1.Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) - the latest incarnation of Poland's post-communist left, in power 1993-1997 with PSL and 2001-2005 with PSL & UP; 2.Your Movement - previously known as The Palikot Movement after founder Janusz Palikot, a former and controversial member of governing party PO who launched the party in 2011 to capture leftist votes largely on lifestyle issues; 3.PPS - a marginal grouping of socialists with no independent parliamentary presence; 4.UP - a labor party which has been in coalition with SLD in prior elections; and 5.the Polish Greens. United Left's campaign gained its first palpable momentum October 4 when the coalition convention named Barbara Nowacka as its leader and PM candidate.
Polish People’s Party (PSL) - an agrarian, centrist party; a long-standing fixture on Poland's political scene: PO's junior coalition partner since 2007, earlier in coalition with left-wing SLD (1993-1997 and 2001-2003). PSL has kept a rather low profile during the early election campaign, focusing on local issues, with only party leader and deputy PM Janusz Piechocinski forefront in the national media.
Nowoczesna (Modern) – a liberal grouping established in May 2015 by Ryszard Petru, a former bank economist, who sought to appeal to a free-market camp that may have felt abandoned by the once-liberal PO. The platform is reform-minded towards state institutions with an eye to building the foundations for economic growth.
Kukiz'15- A new political grouping established by rock musician Pawel Kukiz, the dark horse of the May presidential election who unexpectedly gathered 20% of votes, largely by appealing to an anti-establishment youth electorate.
KORWiN - A party deeply conservative on social issues, fiercely libertarian on economic issues, set up in early 2015 by Janusz Korwin-Mikke, who has previously headed parties with a similar profile since the early 1990s.
Partia Razem (Together Party) - A leaderless left-wing party set up in May 2015 by activists from Young Socialists and former members of the Greens who did not want to go to elections as a part of electoral alliance United Left.
Based on voter support polls, none of the smaller parties can feel confident it will make it past thresholds required for parliamentary representation (5% for parties, 8% for coalitions). Support levels vary widely from poll to poll.
Average poll numbers adjusted for house effects and standard biases of the polls ranked chances of the parties from highest chance for Kukiz’15, followed by the United Left and Nowoczesna. PSL had slipped to just under a 50% chance while Korwin showed only slim chances of meeting the bottom threshold, according to research by Ben Stanley of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw as last updated October 16.
Over 30.73 million adult Poles are qualified to vote.
Poles vote at 27,860 polling stations, including 250 abroad.
A media and campaigning blackout begins at midnight Friday evening and lasts until the last polling station closes Sunday. Voting is slated to run from 7:00 and 21:00, but individual polling stations can be kept open beyond that point, which extends the nationwide blackout.
Three television stations have commissioned an exit poll from the Ipsos agency. The election authority PKW has vowed to issue preliminary national results defining which parties qualify for potential seats late Monday, and the final results with seat allocation Tuesday.
Warsaw Voice
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