EU forecast three million migrants arriving by 2017
Three million migrants fleeing war and poverty are seen entering the EU
by 2017 in a development likely to have a marginal positive impact on
the economy, the European Commission said Nov. 5.
In its first ever assessment of the economic effect of Europe's biggest migration crisis since World War II, the Commission said the influx could boost gross domestic product by 0.2 to 0.3 percent.
EU
economic commissioner Pierre Moscovici said the "weak but positive"
economic effect of the migrants could help offset growing hostility
towards them.
"It means you can't say the influx of refugees is likely to have a negative impact or kicking people out of the labour market," Moscovici said, unveiling the Commission's autumn economic forecast.
"It means you can't say the influx of refugees is likely to have a negative impact or kicking people out of the labour market," Moscovici said, unveiling the Commission's autumn economic forecast.
"That
will combat a certain number of received ideas and backs the politics
of President (Jean-Claude) Juncker," who has pushed for the EU to do
more to help them.
The Commission, the executive arm of the 28-nation European Union, said it expected one million migrant arrivals in 2015, soaring to 1.5 million in 2016 then decreasing to half a million in 2017.
That would represent an 0.4 percent EU population increase once unsuccessful asylum applications were taken into account, it said.
The
new arrivals would give a short-term boost to growth from higher
government spending on new asylum seekers, the Commission said.
That
would be followed by a medium-term boost because of an increase in the
number of workers available "provided the right policies are in place to
facilitate access to the labour market," it said.
Generally, the eurozone economy is to continue its moderate recovery over the next two years following the Greek bailout crisis, despite headwinds from the wider global economy, the Commission said.
Despite a slowdown in China
and emerging markets hampering demand for exports, the 19-country
single currency area is to grow by 1.6 percent in 2015, 1.8 percent in
2016 and 1.9 percent in 2017, it said.
"Today's
economic forecast shows the euro area economy continuing its moderate
recovery," said a statement from Valdis Dombrovskis, the EC's Vice
President in charge of the euro.
Low
oil prices, a weaker euro exchange rate and the European Central Bank's
huge economic stimulus policy of so-called quantitative easing had all
helped boost the eurozone in recent months.
But Dombrovskis said it was important to keep up the pace of reforms across the eurozone.
"This
is important, particularly against the backdrop of a slowing global
economy, continuing tensions in our neighbourhood and the need to manage
the refugee crisis decisively and collectively," he said.
Greece,
which has seen more than 600,000 people landing on its shores this
year, remains a worry with the economy seen slipping back into recession
in 2015 following months of crisis over its bailout which resulted in
capital controls that shut banks for weeks.
The Greek
economy is predicted to remain in recession in 2016 but the new
eurozone bailout programme is expected to bring a return to growth in
2017, it said.
Spain's
deficit is meanwhile likely to be higher than forecast even recently,
adding to concerns that led Brussels last month to order Madrid to
present a new budget that will be closer to EU rules.
The
EU limit for deficits is 3.0 percent of gross domestic product but
Spain's is forecast to be 3.6 percent in 2016, higher than the 3.5
percent predicted only three weeks ago, the forecast said.
France's
troublesome deficit is meanwhile not expected to fall below three
percent in 2017, adding to concerns over its repeated breaches of the
EU's fiscal targets.
Germany,
Europe's biggest economy and also the country hosting the largest
number of asylum seekers, is to see its economy grow by 1.7 percent in
2015 and 1.9 percent in both 2016 and 2017.
The wider 28-nation EU's economy is set to grow by 2.0 percent in 2016 to 2.1 percent in 2017, the forecast said.
Hurriyet Daily News
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